Insights
A 3-Minute Bank Investing Case Study: Why Territorial Bank of Hawaii Looks Attractive but has Fallen Short
We've all had that sensation of finding a stock or other investment that seems too good to be true. Today's post looks at one particularly cheap bank - Territorial Savings (TBNK), that seems like an easy purchase decision, and shares why it may end up more akin to a...
5 Points May: Colarion’s take on bond market shrapnel hitting banks & preserving capital
In this note: Preserving Capital: Discussing how market structure is more important to financial sector investors during sell-offs. How bonds are affecting banks - the securitization market frees up high margin loan growth. How bonds are affecting banks - higher...
The Boomerang Effect: Bank Outperformance Isn’t Just About Higher Margins When Rates Rise
We will begin with a picture: The Fed Funds rate has been zero for two years, and prior to that about 8 years. In this rising rate backdrop there are two reasons banks may perform well vs the broader market. Specifically, Bank EPS tends to do better than the broader...
Bank Investors of the World Unite! Creating a “union” to drive outperformance
Bank investors have outperformed the broader markets by over 10% so far this year, and those of us hidden in the corners owning small, well-run banks may be doing a bit better. (banks in yellow vs S&P 500 in red below) With that said, we need to bring our...
5 Simple Lessons for Shepherding Capital in Choppy Markets (Financial Sector edition)
Below are a few simple lessons I have learned over the years that may help you as you consider your portfolio during the current "turn" in markets. Be aware of the quality of the businesses you own. Don't assume a stock "will always come back" if you hold through,...
Why own boring banks? A holiday gift of moneyball math.
First, I will not get to speak to most of the folks reading this, but if you celebrate Christmas I wish you an enjoyable holiday, hopefully surrounded by friends, family or both… Most of us know how compounding works. The rub is how difficult it is to apply. Out of...
Lessons From the 400% Move in Customers Bancorp (CUBI) Shares
From time to time I will write about client positions, not as investment advice but to share some of the lessons we learn from inside the sector. Your comments or outreach are welcome via our contact page. As flexes go, the above paragraph above, hidden at the bottom...
Using Strong Markets to Run Numbers and Fade “Inertia Banks”
As banks rally at the same time many of them are making low ROI loans, we're spending a minute this afternoon making sure folks know what they are getting when they buy the sector. Is banking a good business? A good business returns more than its cost of capital...
The Pacific Enterprise Sale: An eye-opening perspective on bank mergers
Last week Pacific Enterprise (PEBN) announced it was selling to Bay Commercial (BCML). Pacific Enterprise is a $650 million, 1-branch bank in Irvine, CA with 1/3 of loans in PPP, typically earning 7% ROE at 65% efficiency. Normally PEBN holders would read the merger...
How Will Central Bank Digital Currencies Work, Will They Disrupt the Banking System, and Who Wins or Loses?
We have gotten a number of questions about what digital currencies mean, so below is a brief primer on their current status and potential impact. While this topic may seem wonky today, we will all at some point in the next few years likely have the option of a digital...