Insights
Tools for Financials Investors Nervous About Inflation and Rates
We'll skip the Charlie Munder quotes; it's broadly apparent that we live in different times: US Debt: Inflation is the Only Way to Manage It (Treasury Dept) Nervousness is rational: Normally we don't see policymakers launch gargantuan, two-pronged stimulus 6 months...
A Tool for Outperformance: Finding Great Businesses Hidden Inside “Boring” Banks
Improve portfolio growth by avoiding the "clones" Owning typical banks can be a losers game. Most banks compete on price, fight low rates, and miss out on innovations like digital currencies. For these reasons among others, regional banks have lagged the broader...
Now the fun begins! Bank merger investing in 2021…
We lost a lot in 2020, but we are getting a lot of it back in 2021. One bit of good news apparent in fourth quarter earnings calls is the coming return of the bank merger and merger premium. Connecting the dots to create a portfolio of likely acquisitions should be a...
The worst large bank in America? (a constructive 3 minute exercise)
Many years ago I attended a dinner with a group of bank investors, including a good friend later profiled in the movie The Big Short. The topic of Fifth Third came up. Fifth Third had recently sold its payments business to scrounge up capital and my friend blurted out...
2021 – The year small banks finally create happy customers, and make more money in the process
2021 is going to be less awful in more ways than you expect. It will be the year banks finally begin to figure out how to make customers' online experience good, while saving money in the process. The issue is as simple as converting to the cloud. You've probably done...
A Technique to Help Little Guys Win in the Markets
Invest like Jedi Despite headlines to the contrary, small taking share from big is a theme we will see plenty of in 2021, from ecommerce (Shopify) to challenger banks (Chime) to payment systems (Square). We may even see some of it in investment management. After a...
Finding 100% upside in banks: the tech angle
The Tech angle to Bank Upside As we venture through a "dark winter", there are no sure things in bank investing, but a wrinkle has emerged of late in finding outsized winners. The double and triple opportunities are not all credit-recovery plays like in past cycles,...
A Hater’s Guide to Banks: popular arguments from sellers, and what they get right or wrong
Twitter can be time sink or it can provide valuable insight on what the market is thinking. Some insight came recently when a well-followed newsletter writer (Long Short Value @lsvalue) posted that "Traditional Banks are a terminal short - prove me wrong," followed by...
It’s better to give than to receive stock in a bank that puts shareholders second.
A rundown of banks that have earned holiday greetings 2020 has been a tricky year for bank managements. Managers are supposed to look out for owners, customers and employees, and while the best ones strike a balance, most can't quite get there, and it's the markets...
The Banks that Understand Crypto
Cryto - the marketing construct that meets a need. Perhaps no theme is as popular among the many macro investor subscription services available than hating fiat money. What's not to hate? Inflation takes 1-2% away annually according to fuzzy government statistics, or...